Federal Election – Rate Detective is calling it

We have given up on Antony Green’s election prediction model, Rate Detective is going to call the election. Current count is 70 Coalition 67 Labor and 5 independents. There are 8 seats in doubt. Liberal will win the three they are in front in because postal votes favor them (about 60/40 historically). That's Gilmore, Dunkley and Chisholm that the Coalition can add to their seat count. That will take the Coalition up to 73 seats, They need 3 more to govern outright. Remember the Bob Kat is an independent that will always go with the Coalition being a former National (essentially 74 seats).

I am tipping Forde and Hindmash will swing to the Coalition. The Coalition are just 104 votes behind on two party preferred in Forde and postal votes seem to be favoring Liberal. A similar story with Hindmash just 347 votes Labor lead by but the Libs are closing fast.

It is possible that Cowan can turn to the Libs as well due to postal votes. The siting member is ex-army and there is a large amount of postal votes expected to go the Libs way in Cowan.

I am tipping 76 Coalition 69 Labor and 5 independents. The Coalition will be able to appoint a speaker off the back of the Bob Kat.

Published on July 7-th, 2016 in Australian Economy
Damon Rasheed is the CEO of Rate Detective, an Australian financial service comparison sites specialising in Life Insurance, Income Protection Insurance and home loans. Damon holds a Master's Degree in Economics from the University of Melbourne and has been involved in many start-up internet businesses.